Drought-Induced Agricultural Disruptions and Their Implications for Household Purchasing Power

Abstract

Drought associated with the 2026 El Niño phenomenon poses significant challenges to agricultural production, food supply stability, and household purchasing power. This study examines how drought-induced agricultural disruptions affect household purchasing power through changes in agricultural production, food prices, and household economic vulnerability. A qualitative descriptive approach based on secondary data was employed, drawing on agricultural production statistics, inflation indicators, government reports, institutional assessments, and relevant media documentation. The analysis covered agricultural production developments and inflation trends during 2026, particularly from July to October. The findings indicate that rice production declined from 49.30 million tons in January–September 2025 to 48.77 million tons during the corresponding period in 2026, while production projections for October–December 2026 also indicate a substantial decline. Agricultural disruptions potentially extend to maize, chili, vegetables, and plantation commodities, increasing vulnerability in food supply systems. Concurrently, volatile food inflation increased from 2.52% in July to 5.81% in October 2026, indicating intensifying food price pressures. These developments may weaken household purchasing power through reduced agricultural income and increasing food expenditure. The study highlights the importance of strengthening climate-resilient agricultural production, food distribution systems, market stabilization, and targeted social protection to safeguard household economic welfare.